mag
11-4-2005, 10:53 pm
WHEAT:
Small declines are projected for 2004/05 global trade and use but stocks are up slightly from last month. Global wheat production is down fractionally but is still a record and 71 million tons more than the previous year. Global consumption is lowered by less than 1 million tons. Global imports are down slightly from last month. The reduction in projected imports for Saudi Arabia, the Philippines, Turkey, and South Korea is only partially offset by larger imports by Nigeria, the United States, and Indonesia. Projected exports from the EU-25 are 1 million tons lower than last month. Exports from Australia are down 0.5 million tons and Romania's exports are down 0.1 million tons. Global ending stocks are up about 1 million tons from last month's projection, with the largest changes occurring in the EU-25 (up 0.8 million tons), Australia (up 0.5 million tons), and the United States (down 0.3 million tons). Smaller changes in stocks are projected in many other countries.
COARSE GRAINS:
Projected global 2004/05 coarse grain supply,trade, and use are down from last month but stocks are up. Global production is lowered fractionally but remains a record at 1,003 million tons. The largest reductions in 2004/05 coarse grain crops are projected for Brazil (down 1.1 million tons) and the EU-25 (down 0.3 million tons). Production increases are projected for South Africa (up 0.5 million tons) and Australia (up 0.3 million tons). Smaller changes are projected for other countries. Global 2004/05 consumption of coarse grains is down 4.6 million tons from last month. The largest decreases projected are for the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Ukraine which more than offset increased consumption in South Korea, Serbia and Montenegro, and other countries. Global imports are down 0.5 million tons from last month with reductions projected for Saudi Arabia (down 1 million tons), Venezuela, and South Africa. The largest increase in imports is projected for Brazil (up 0.7 million tons). U.S. exports are down 1.3 million tons, followed by the EU-25 and Serbia and Montenegro (each down 0.4 million tons), with smaller reductions projected for Argentina and Ukraine. Global coarse grain stocks increased 3.8 million tons from last month and are up 36 million tons from last year. The largest month-to-month changes in ending stocks are projected for the United States (up 4.7 million tons), China (down 1 million tons),
South Korea (down 0.7 million tons), and Brazil (down 0.5 million tons).
OILSEEDS:
Global oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at 382.8 million tons, down 3.7 million tons from last month, but still record large. Global soybean production is reduced 4.9 million tons to 219.2 million tons. The Brazil soybean crop is lowered 5 million tons to 54 million tons reflecting the effects of drought, especially in the southern producing areas.
Despite sharp drought-related reductions in projected soybean output this year, the 2005 Brazilian soybean crop remains a record. Global rapeseed production is increased 1.7 million tons to a record 45.5 million tons. Rapeseed production is raised for both India and China. Other oilseed changes include higher cottonseed production for India and China and higher palm oil production for Malaysia.
Global oilseed ending stocks for 2004/05 are reduced 3.4 million tons to 59.0 million tons, primarily due to reductions for soybeans in South America. Global soybean stocks are projected at 52.6 million tons, 15.2 million tons above 2003/04. Stocks in Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay combined are projected to increase 6.2 million tons from 2003/04, with most of the increase expected in Argentina. Global oilseed crush and trade are little changed this month.
Small declines are projected for 2004/05 global trade and use but stocks are up slightly from last month. Global wheat production is down fractionally but is still a record and 71 million tons more than the previous year. Global consumption is lowered by less than 1 million tons. Global imports are down slightly from last month. The reduction in projected imports for Saudi Arabia, the Philippines, Turkey, and South Korea is only partially offset by larger imports by Nigeria, the United States, and Indonesia. Projected exports from the EU-25 are 1 million tons lower than last month. Exports from Australia are down 0.5 million tons and Romania's exports are down 0.1 million tons. Global ending stocks are up about 1 million tons from last month's projection, with the largest changes occurring in the EU-25 (up 0.8 million tons), Australia (up 0.5 million tons), and the United States (down 0.3 million tons). Smaller changes in stocks are projected in many other countries.
COARSE GRAINS:
Projected global 2004/05 coarse grain supply,trade, and use are down from last month but stocks are up. Global production is lowered fractionally but remains a record at 1,003 million tons. The largest reductions in 2004/05 coarse grain crops are projected for Brazil (down 1.1 million tons) and the EU-25 (down 0.3 million tons). Production increases are projected for South Africa (up 0.5 million tons) and Australia (up 0.3 million tons). Smaller changes are projected for other countries. Global 2004/05 consumption of coarse grains is down 4.6 million tons from last month. The largest decreases projected are for the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Ukraine which more than offset increased consumption in South Korea, Serbia and Montenegro, and other countries. Global imports are down 0.5 million tons from last month with reductions projected for Saudi Arabia (down 1 million tons), Venezuela, and South Africa. The largest increase in imports is projected for Brazil (up 0.7 million tons). U.S. exports are down 1.3 million tons, followed by the EU-25 and Serbia and Montenegro (each down 0.4 million tons), with smaller reductions projected for Argentina and Ukraine. Global coarse grain stocks increased 3.8 million tons from last month and are up 36 million tons from last year. The largest month-to-month changes in ending stocks are projected for the United States (up 4.7 million tons), China (down 1 million tons),
South Korea (down 0.7 million tons), and Brazil (down 0.5 million tons).
OILSEEDS:
Global oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at 382.8 million tons, down 3.7 million tons from last month, but still record large. Global soybean production is reduced 4.9 million tons to 219.2 million tons. The Brazil soybean crop is lowered 5 million tons to 54 million tons reflecting the effects of drought, especially in the southern producing areas.
Despite sharp drought-related reductions in projected soybean output this year, the 2005 Brazilian soybean crop remains a record. Global rapeseed production is increased 1.7 million tons to a record 45.5 million tons. Rapeseed production is raised for both India and China. Other oilseed changes include higher cottonseed production for India and China and higher palm oil production for Malaysia.
Global oilseed ending stocks for 2004/05 are reduced 3.4 million tons to 59.0 million tons, primarily due to reductions for soybeans in South America. Global soybean stocks are projected at 52.6 million tons, 15.2 million tons above 2003/04. Stocks in Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay combined are projected to increase 6.2 million tons from 2003/04, with most of the increase expected in Argentina. Global oilseed crush and trade are little changed this month.