mag
28-5-2005, 11:05 pm
AWB estimates returns from its benchmark new crop Australian Premium White type wheat of 10% protein will be in a range of A$180-A$190 a metric ton free on board and exclusive of a 10% goods and services tax for the number one pool.
India: some dodgy goings on in the market here:
In recent weeks, international wheat prices have changed little, in the wake of mostly stable global weather conditions and a comfortable global inventory. Yet in India despite a harvest of over 70 million tonnes of wheat and the purchase of a extra 15 million tonnes of wheat by the Food Corporation of India, wheat prices have firmed up even at the current peak of the wheat marketing period.
After record production and stock build up in 2004-05 season, global wheat production and consumption are expected to remain in a state of balance in 2005-06. Large availabilities in several key-exporting countries including Europe and the CIS should help maintain a competitive global market in the new season. Large speculative funds are flowing into the wheat market causing the forward market to rise by 25% for August delivery.
My personal bet here would be arbritrade trades by speculators who made move last week at the CBOT futures exchange where they jumped on the announcement of bad weather in the US and placed speculative trades in expectation of the market rising, and they are now covering these trades at the expense of the Indian wheat market.
Just got to love the idea of free trade, remember the golden rule in trade, he who has the gold makes the rules.
Global Wheat Update :
China
Rising incomes are shifting more demand towards meat, vegetables and fruits.
The first shipment of French wheat has arrived in China this was the first batch of the 700,000-ton wheat contract signed between China and France last May.
According to the agricultural counsellor at the French Embassy Marie-Helene Le Henaff, in Beijing. "They expect to see the growing wheat trade between China and France, beginning with this contract"
"France had a bumper harvest this year, and we can provide 2 million tons of wheat to China next year.?"
On another note customs figures indicate China imported 5.97 million tons of wheat in the year's first 10 months, up 17.7 fold over the same period of last year.
China set its tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 9.636 million tons for wheat this year, in accordance with its commitments to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Under the WTO-entry agreement, imports within the TRQ must have a 1-per-cent tariff, and imports beyond the quota must carry a 65-per-cent quota.
China is expected to grow 22.9-23 million hectares of wheat this year, up 4.5-5 per cent from last year, indicate statistics from the Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market.
Pakistan:
Chief Minister's Advisor for Food and Agriculture Ghulam Murtaza Jatoi, addressing a press conference in Pakistan on Monday, said that the federal government would be requested to meet a shortfall of 2 million tonnes of wheat.
India
Wheat production in India needs to rise by approximately 3 million metric tonnes a year to keep pace with the rising population.
The EU
Europe last year produced record crops and publicly-funded grain silos are nearing full capacity, and with another big harvest just weeks away, the EU bloc looks to be awash with cheap wheat for this season.
The EU's intervention stores are set to close their doors at the end of this month, and the latest data shows that farmers have so far offered to sell 9.23 million tonnes of wheat to them for a guaranteed price of just above 100 euros ($125.7 USD) or ($165.00 AUD based on the current exchange rate of 0.7618 to the USD) a tonne.
Total grain offerings now stand at 14.6 million tonnes, including 3.15 million tonnes of maize and 2.22 million barley.
While the total may be well below the 30 million tonnes that plagued the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) a decade ago, it still poses a major headache for countries already short of storage space and for EU farmers looking at another year of prices hovering just above the cost of production level.
This means that for the short term cheap EU wheat caused by EU re-introduced subsidies and a chronic shortage of storage capacity in the EU will flood the global market thus potentially making Australian wheat less appealing to importing countries, unless the AUD begins to fall we may find in the short term some stiff competition in this trade.
USA:
Our erstwhile compatriots in the US, are being urged to make sure that they sign up for the Hard White Wheat incentive program which encourages US wheat producers to produce more hard white wheat for export to South east Asia for the production of noodles.
Incentive payments are as follows:
20 cents per bushel for number 2 or better grade hard white wheat, to a maximum of 60 bushels a acre planted.
$2.00 a acre for planting certified seed
Nice to see a goverment giving a hand to some farmers :mad:
SALES THIS WEEK:
South Korea purchased approximately 21,500 metric tons of Wheat. Shipment is slated between Jul 15-Aug 15
11.5 pct protein Hard Red Winter 4,600
14.0 pct protein Dark Northern Spring 4,200
10.5 pct protein Western/Soft White 7,500
9.5 pct protein Western/Soft White 3,700
8.5 pct protein Western/Soft White 1,500
The US Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) purchased 23,300 metric tons of
Sorghum for export distribution to Eritrea. Shipment is slated for mid June :thumb
Off to the UAE for a couple of days for a conference, will see if I can bring back some good news for a change.
Cheers. :thumb
India: some dodgy goings on in the market here:
In recent weeks, international wheat prices have changed little, in the wake of mostly stable global weather conditions and a comfortable global inventory. Yet in India despite a harvest of over 70 million tonnes of wheat and the purchase of a extra 15 million tonnes of wheat by the Food Corporation of India, wheat prices have firmed up even at the current peak of the wheat marketing period.
After record production and stock build up in 2004-05 season, global wheat production and consumption are expected to remain in a state of balance in 2005-06. Large availabilities in several key-exporting countries including Europe and the CIS should help maintain a competitive global market in the new season. Large speculative funds are flowing into the wheat market causing the forward market to rise by 25% for August delivery.
My personal bet here would be arbritrade trades by speculators who made move last week at the CBOT futures exchange where they jumped on the announcement of bad weather in the US and placed speculative trades in expectation of the market rising, and they are now covering these trades at the expense of the Indian wheat market.
Just got to love the idea of free trade, remember the golden rule in trade, he who has the gold makes the rules.
Global Wheat Update :
China
Rising incomes are shifting more demand towards meat, vegetables and fruits.
The first shipment of French wheat has arrived in China this was the first batch of the 700,000-ton wheat contract signed between China and France last May.
According to the agricultural counsellor at the French Embassy Marie-Helene Le Henaff, in Beijing. "They expect to see the growing wheat trade between China and France, beginning with this contract"
"France had a bumper harvest this year, and we can provide 2 million tons of wheat to China next year.?"
On another note customs figures indicate China imported 5.97 million tons of wheat in the year's first 10 months, up 17.7 fold over the same period of last year.
China set its tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 9.636 million tons for wheat this year, in accordance with its commitments to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Under the WTO-entry agreement, imports within the TRQ must have a 1-per-cent tariff, and imports beyond the quota must carry a 65-per-cent quota.
China is expected to grow 22.9-23 million hectares of wheat this year, up 4.5-5 per cent from last year, indicate statistics from the Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market.
Pakistan:
Chief Minister's Advisor for Food and Agriculture Ghulam Murtaza Jatoi, addressing a press conference in Pakistan on Monday, said that the federal government would be requested to meet a shortfall of 2 million tonnes of wheat.
India
Wheat production in India needs to rise by approximately 3 million metric tonnes a year to keep pace with the rising population.
The EU
Europe last year produced record crops and publicly-funded grain silos are nearing full capacity, and with another big harvest just weeks away, the EU bloc looks to be awash with cheap wheat for this season.
The EU's intervention stores are set to close their doors at the end of this month, and the latest data shows that farmers have so far offered to sell 9.23 million tonnes of wheat to them for a guaranteed price of just above 100 euros ($125.7 USD) or ($165.00 AUD based on the current exchange rate of 0.7618 to the USD) a tonne.
Total grain offerings now stand at 14.6 million tonnes, including 3.15 million tonnes of maize and 2.22 million barley.
While the total may be well below the 30 million tonnes that plagued the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) a decade ago, it still poses a major headache for countries already short of storage space and for EU farmers looking at another year of prices hovering just above the cost of production level.
This means that for the short term cheap EU wheat caused by EU re-introduced subsidies and a chronic shortage of storage capacity in the EU will flood the global market thus potentially making Australian wheat less appealing to importing countries, unless the AUD begins to fall we may find in the short term some stiff competition in this trade.
USA:
Our erstwhile compatriots in the US, are being urged to make sure that they sign up for the Hard White Wheat incentive program which encourages US wheat producers to produce more hard white wheat for export to South east Asia for the production of noodles.
Incentive payments are as follows:
20 cents per bushel for number 2 or better grade hard white wheat, to a maximum of 60 bushels a acre planted.
$2.00 a acre for planting certified seed
Nice to see a goverment giving a hand to some farmers :mad:
SALES THIS WEEK:
South Korea purchased approximately 21,500 metric tons of Wheat. Shipment is slated between Jul 15-Aug 15
11.5 pct protein Hard Red Winter 4,600
14.0 pct protein Dark Northern Spring 4,200
10.5 pct protein Western/Soft White 7,500
9.5 pct protein Western/Soft White 3,700
8.5 pct protein Western/Soft White 1,500
The US Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) purchased 23,300 metric tons of
Sorghum for export distribution to Eritrea. Shipment is slated for mid June :thumb
Off to the UAE for a couple of days for a conference, will see if I can bring back some good news for a change.
Cheers. :thumb